covid-19

Life After Covid-19 – Scenarios of Economic Recovery

As the cases of Covid-19 begin to level off, many states are cautiously reopening and beginning to loosen their social distancing restrictions in hopes of jumpstarting their economy.

The coronavirus pandemic has devastated the U.S. and world economy, plummeting economic activity and causing soaring unemployment rates. Social distancing policies designed to slow the spread of the disease have resulted in an economic decline that rivals the Great Depression.

So, what can we expect over the next several months? Will the economic recovery be as painful as the coronavirus-linked lockdowns or will there be a bounceback or possibly a scenario in between these extremes?

Currently, economic analysts are debating the following scenarios of recovery:

The “Z-Shaped” Recovery – This most optimistic scenario predicts that the post-pandemic economy bounces back above the pre-pandemic baseline due to pent-up demand, creating a temporary economic boom. In other words, once the risk of the pandemic passes, we will come out in full force, shopping and dining and taking those trips we postponed.

The “V-Shaped” Recovery – The next best recovery scenario suggests that although the economy permanently loses the production that would have occurred absent the pandemic, it will quickly return to its pre-pandemic baseline once social distancing restrictions have been lifted. In other words, the economy will go back to its pre-virus state.

The “W-Shaped” Recovery – This double-dip scenario suggests that there will be a surge in COVID-19 cases after the initial re-openings, causing another round of closures, causing another downturn in the economy prior to a recovery.

The “U-Shaped” Recovery – This scenario suggests that GDP remains low for some time, possibly more than a couple of quarters after the lockdowns have been lifted, resulting in the economy recovering, returning to its baseline slowly.

The “Swoosh-Shaped” Recovery – Borrowed from Nike’s logo, this scenario suggests that after a sharp downturn the economy will gradually bounce back as restrictions are eased and consumers, businesses and state and local governments are willing to spend. Many economists believe this or the U-Shaped recoveries are the likeliest scenarios.

The “L-Shaped” Recovery – This most pessimistic scenario suggests that the pandemic has a permanent affect on GDP, causing growth to continue to decline and not recover for some time. This is pretty much what the Great Depression recovery looked like. Most economists believe this scenario is unlikely unless the number of global coronavirus cases continue to rise, forcing more lockdowns.

The common thread that runs through these various scenarios is that they contain some variation of the tradeoff between the physical health response and economic response. As the economy reopens, measures will still be in place that will curtail economic activity to some degree – businesses will have to space workers and customers further apart, travel will be less common, restaurants will be serving fewer customers at a time, and activities involving large crowds will remain off limits for possibly a long time. Many people will be reluctant to return to life as it was prior to the pandemic, settling into a new “normal.”

Although economists have different recovery theories, they seem to be in agreement that the economy isn’t going to rebound overnight. The key question, however, is whether the damage to our economy will be long lasting.

Maintaining Your Mental Health During the COVID-19 Crisis

As you navigate this alien world of surgical masks in the grocery stores, the shortage of everyday household supplies, the overcrowding in our healthcare facilities and the bombardment of news that our world has become a dangerous place to live, you may be beginning to feel overwhelmed and anxious. The novel coronavirus outbreak has created unprecedented levels of anxiety for most of us – for some who are actually battling the virus, but for the vast majority who are facing the unknown, the disruption of their everyday routine, loss of employment and serious financial concerns.

This is unchartered territory for most of us, and it is frightening! For many people, the fear of the unknown and the incessant doom and gloom headlines make it all too easy to spiral into overwhelming dread and panic. But, there are many things you can do to self-care – manage your anxiety and fears – during this unique crisis.

Take Care of Yourself First – Like the announcement we hear each time we get on an airplane, “In case of a cabin pressure emergency, put your own mask on first before assisting others.” This is a metaphor for life. You can’t help others for very long if you don’t take care of yourself first.

Keep a Routine – Even if you’re stuck at home, try to maintain your normal routine by sticking to your regular sleep, meal, and school or work schedule.

Eat Well – Proper eating is one defense against most diseases. Eat plenty of fruits and vegetables. Avoid eating out of boredom or anxiety, eliminate or reduce alcohol consumption and other intoxicants and stay well hydrated.

Exercise – Although we can’t hit the gyms like we used to, there are many safe alternatives you can do in the comfort and safety of your home. If you don’t have any exercise videos, use YouTube and Instagram to help you find ways to stay fit or just take long walks.

Limit News Intake – Limit your media consumption to only the information you need to know to stay safe…then turn it off! This advice goes for financial information as well. Watching the stock market go up and down (mostly down) all day can have a negative impact on your mental wellbeing.

Have Fun – Enjoy the extra time you have with your family by talking…and laughing, playing board games, cards, putting together puzzles and cooking.

Connect – Take this downtime to reach out to those you care about, making sure they are staying safe and letting them know how important they are to you. Take advantage of the many technical (FaceTime) and social media resources to stay connected during this time of social isolation.

Engage in Positive Activities – Read a good book, listen to uplifting music, watch the sunrise or sunset, get out in nature, practice yoga or meditate. Limit your interactions with negative people. Remember emotions are contagious and right now fear is rampant.

You can also counteract distress over the loss of control by straightening up what you can. This is a great time to clean and organize your home or to attack a home improvement project you’ve been meaning to get to.

Reflect – The sudden halt in our daily lives, caused by this unprecedented crisis, has forced us to sit still. We can spend this time by being overwhelmed with negative thoughts and a sense of despair or we can use these quiet moments to reflect on the positive changes we want to make in our lives when this pause button is removed. Try to think about the activities in your life you’ve come to realize are important and you want to resume, start making a mental list of the ones you don’t, and above all, focus on the many blessings you have.

The national Disaster Distress Helpline is available to anyone experiencing emotional distress related to COVID-19. Call 1-800-985-5990 or text TalkWithUs to 66746 to speak to a counselor.

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